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Greg Laden has been at 2 events

HostFollowersTitleDateGuestsLinks
Nature Publishing Group523,239How the Earth’s temperature has varied over the past millennium or two has long been a key question in climate research and massive amounts of work have gone into individual temperature reconstructions. The PAGES 2k Consortium brought together and reanalysed over 400 records of past temperature variability, broken down to the scale of continents, and published the results in Nature Geoscience on 21 April. Download the paper (http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1797 ; free for registered users until 10 May) and join us as we discuss our understanding of climate evolution over the past two millennia with PAGES 2k author Nick McKay, PAGES executive director Thorsten Kiefer, climate modeller Gavin Schmidt, and palaeoclimatologist Nerilie Abram on 9 May, at 4PM BST/ 11 AM EDT. Get started by posting any questions you have for our speakers in the comment section.   Starting two hours before the event, we will only be able to see questions posted on the page and tweeted using #NPGjclub?  Climate 2k Journal Club2013-05-09 17:00:00111  
The White House2,950,671In his State of the Union address, President Obama outlined his plan for a thriving middle class and a strong America. The President's plan focuses on making America a magnet for jobs and manufacturing, equipping every American with the skills they need to do those jobs, and ensuring that hard work leads to a decent living. On Thursday, February 14th, President Obama will join the latest in a series of "Fireside Hangouts" – a 21st century take on FDR’s famous radio addresses – to talk about his State of the Union Address. During the +Google+ hangout, the President will answer questions from Americans across the country about the issues and policies laid out in the speech. Watch the hangout live on Thursday, February 14th at 4:50 p.m. ET on the +The White House Google+ page, at http://youtube.com/whitehouse, and at http://wh.gov Learn more about the State of the Union, then share your Citizen Response at http://wh.gov/SOTU #firesidehangout   #SOTU  State of the Union: Fireside Hangout with President Obama2013-02-14 22:50:0034097  

Shared Circles including Greg Laden

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Activity

Average numbers for the latest posts (max. 50 posts, posted within the last 4 weeks)

7
comments per post
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Top posts in the last 50 posts

Most comments: 13

2015-07-11 02:16:46 (13 comments, 0 reshares, 9 +1s)Open 

I have an announcement to make. Somehow, and I have absolutely no idea how, every person in all of my circles has been deleted from my circles.  I have no one circled.  

This leaves me wondering what to do next on G+.  Any suggestions?

Most reshares: 7

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2015-04-24 03:05:08 (0 comments, 7 reshares, 5 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/23/the-day-apollo-13-crashed-into-the-earth-or-something/

Most plusones: 9

2015-07-11 02:16:46 (13 comments, 0 reshares, 9 +1s)Open 

I have an announcement to make. Somehow, and I have absolutely no idea how, every person in all of my circles has been deleted from my circles.  I have no one circled.  

This leaves me wondering what to do next on G+.  Any suggestions?

Latest 50 posts

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2015-07-12 12:30:07 (0 comments, 1 reshares, 3 +1s)Open 

My R package 'cricketr' which can be used to analyze the performances of cricketers

My R package 'cricketr' which can be used to analyze the performances of cricketers___

2015-07-11 02:16:46 (13 comments, 0 reshares, 9 +1s)Open 

I have an announcement to make. Somehow, and I have absolutely no idea how, every person in all of my circles has been deleted from my circles.  I have no one circled.  

This leaves me wondering what to do next on G+.  Any suggestions?

I have an announcement to make. Somehow, and I have absolutely no idea how, every person in all of my circles has been deleted from my circles.  I have no one circled.  

This leaves me wondering what to do next on G+.  Any suggestions?___

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2015-06-18 18:01:20 (11 comments, 0 reshares, 2 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/18/what-woman-should-be-on-the-ten-dollar-us-bill/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/18/what-woman-should-be-on-the-ten-dollar-us-bill/___

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2015-06-15 16:57:30 (2 comments, 2 reshares, 2 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/11/are-pigs-really-like-people/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/11/are-pigs-really-like-people/___

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2015-06-15 16:57:12 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 1 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/14/interview-with-sheril-kirshenbaum/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/14/interview-with-sheril-kirshenbaum/___

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2015-06-15 16:56:48 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 2 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/14/atlantic-hurricanes-2015-will-bill/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/14/atlantic-hurricanes-2015-will-bill/___

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2015-06-15 16:56:27 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 0 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/15/what-is-the-magna-carta/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/15/what-is-the-magna-carta/___

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2015-06-15 16:56:02 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 1 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/15/how-warm-was-may/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/15/how-warm-was-may/___

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2015-06-15 16:55:26 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 3 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/15/skeptics-dare-heartland-institute-to-take-up-25000-climate-challenge/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/15/skeptics-dare-heartland-institute-to-take-up-25000-climate-challenge/___

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2015-06-12 15:23:06 (1 comments, 0 reshares, 3 +1s)Open 

Sungudogo in print. Proof copy. 

Sungudogo in print. Proof copy. ___

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2015-06-11 18:02:37 (2 comments, 0 reshares, 2 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/11/are-pigs-really-like-people/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/11/are-pigs-really-like-people/___

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2015-06-08 13:58:00 (1 comments, 0 reshares, 2 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/08/bakken-oil-train-hits-semi-at-unsafe-crossing/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/08/bakken-oil-train-hits-semi-at-unsafe-crossing/___

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2015-06-07 19:52:30 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 2 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/07/what-does-global-warming-mean/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/07/what-does-global-warming-mean/___

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2015-06-04 15:31:14 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 4 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/04/which-verizon-smartphones-have-android-lollipop/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/04/which-verizon-smartphones-have-android-lollipop/___

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2015-06-02 18:59:48 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 4 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/02/sciencedebate-org-interview-with-sheril-kirshenbaum/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/06/02/sciencedebate-org-interview-with-sheril-kirshenbaum/___

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2015-05-29 17:26:10 (0 comments, 1 reshares, 2 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/29/the-search-for-sungudogo/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/29/the-search-for-sungudogo/___

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2015-05-26 23:36:15 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 4 +1s)Open 

The water-slingers were wrong, jerks. 

But the way these cops acted is embarrassing.  They immediately turned to storm trooper mode.  Glad they weren't carrying at the time or there would be dead people. 

Shouldn't cops who are off duty, now that we've bred them to be so dangerous, wear warning labels?

The water-slingers were wrong, jerks. 

But the way these cops acted is embarrassing.  They immediately turned to storm trooper mode.  Glad they weren't carrying at the time or there would be dead people. 

Shouldn't cops who are off duty, now that we've bred them to be so dangerous, wear warning labels?___

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2015-05-22 01:48:44 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 3 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/21/new-research-antarctic-glaciers-destabilized/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/21/new-research-antarctic-glaciers-destabilized/___

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2015-05-22 01:48:29 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 2 +1s)Open 

A new paper is just out in The Lancet that examines the mortality risk of high and low ambient temperatures. The basic idea is that if it is either to hot or too cold, mortality may increase, possibly with the weather being a factor to augment the effects of other health problems, or as a direct result. The paper is methodologically reasonably well done but leads to conclusions that I think will be misinterpreted and misused. The paper implies that a shift to a warmer world would have lower mortality effects than a shift to a colder world might. Or, more significantly, that a shift to a warmer world will reduce ambient temperature related mortality by reducing the effects of cold. This is incorrect for a number of reasons.

Having said that, this paper does make a valuable contribution to public health, though here I’ll note that only in passing (see below).

First, I’ll give you theaut... more »

A new paper is just out in The Lancet that examines the mortality risk of high and low ambient temperatures. The basic idea is that if it is either to hot or too cold, mortality may increase, possibly with the weather being a factor to augment the effects of other health problems, or as a direct result. The paper is methodologically reasonably well done but leads to conclusions that I think will be misinterpreted and misused. The paper implies that a shift to a warmer world would have lower mortality effects than a shift to a colder world might. Or, more significantly, that a shift to a warmer world will reduce ambient temperature related mortality by reducing the effects of cold. This is incorrect for a number of reasons.

Having said that, this paper does make a valuable contribution to public health, though here I’ll note that only in passing (see below).

First, I’ll give you the author’s viewpoint directly by quoting from the abstract, then I’ll tell you what I think about it.

The paper is “Mortality risk attributable to high and low ambient temperature: a multicountry observational study,” by Antonio Gasparrini and a host of other authors. It says:

"""Summary
Background Although studies have provided estimates of premature deaths attributable to either heat or cold in selected countries, none has so far offered a systematic assessment across the whole temperature range in populations exposed to different climates. We aimed to quantify the total mortality burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperature, and the relative contributions from heat and cold and from moderate and extreme temperatures.

Methods We collected data for 384 locations in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Taiwan, Thailand, UK, and USA. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson model for each location, controlling for trends and day of the week. We estimated temperature–mortality associations with a distributed lag non-linear model with 21 days of lag, and then pooled them in a multivariate metaregression that included country indicators and temperature average and range. We calculated attributable deaths for heat and cold, defined as temperatures above and below the optimum temperature, which corresponded to the point of minimum mortality, and for moderate and extreme temperatures, defined using cutoffs at the 2·5th and 97·5th temperature percentiles.

Findings We analysed 74225 200 deaths in various periods between 1985 and 2012. In total, 7·71% (95% empirical CI 7·43–7·91) of mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperature in the selected countries within the study period, with substantial differences between countries, ranging from 3·37% (3·06 to 3·63) in Thailand to 11·00% (9·29 to 12·47) in China. The temperature percentile of minimum mortality varied from roughly the 60th percentile in tropical areas to about the 80–90th percentile in temperate regions. More temperature-attributable deaths were caused by cold (7·29%, 7·02–7·49) than by heat (0·42%, 0·39–0·44). Extreme cold and hot temperatures were responsible for 0·86% (0·84–0·87) of total mortality.

Interpretation Most of the temperature-related mortality burden was attributable to the contribution of cold. The effect of days of extreme temperature was substantially less than that attributable to milder but non-optimum weather. This evidence has important implications for the planning of public-health interventions to minimise the health consequences of adverse temperatures, and for predictions of future effect in climate-change scenarios."""

What could possibly go wrong?

Obviously, the main way this paper could derail is when climate change denialists make the claim that global warming is good because cold weather causes more mortality than warm weather, so we’ll have less mortality. This, however, is incorrect for several reasons.





http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/21/the-risk-of-hot-and-cold-weather/___

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2015-05-22 01:46:55 (1 comments, 0 reshares, 8 +1s)Open 

___

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2015-05-21 19:16:45 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 3 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/21/new-research-antarctic-glaciers-destabilized/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/21/new-research-antarctic-glaciers-destabilized/___

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2015-05-21 19:16:37 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 4 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/21/state-of-emergency-in-california/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/21/state-of-emergency-in-california/___

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2015-05-21 19:16:29 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 1 +1s)Open 

Will global warming have this one positive outcome? Not likely: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/21/the-risk-of-hot-and-cold-weather/

Will global warming have this one positive outcome? Not likely: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/21/the-risk-of-hot-and-cold-weather/___

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2015-05-21 19:16:07 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 3 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/21/why-is-fox-news-anti-american/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/21/why-is-fox-news-anti-american/___

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2015-05-21 19:16:00 (0 comments, 2 reshares, 4 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/20/climate-change-as-a-national-security-threat/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/20/climate-change-as-a-national-security-threat/___

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2015-05-19 15:02:39 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 5 +1s)Open 

This project is really exciting. Click through and if you can make a Kickstarter Donation!  

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/19/new-star-wars-film-the-recompense/

This project is really exciting. Click through and if you can make a Kickstarter Donation!  

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/19/new-star-wars-film-the-recompense/___

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2015-05-19 14:10:37 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 0 +1s)Open 

http://10000birds.com/how-the-bird-got-its-beak.htm

http://10000birds.com/how-the-bird-got-its-beak.htm___

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2015-05-14 16:35:36 (0 comments, 1 reshares, 4 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/14/close-call-amtrak-train-may-have-nearly-hit-oil-train/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/14/close-call-amtrak-train-may-have-nearly-hit-oil-train/___

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2015-05-14 15:46:48 (1 comments, 1 reshares, 6 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/14/a-global-warming-fingerprint-confirmed-upper-troposphere-warming/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/14/a-global-warming-fingerprint-confirmed-upper-troposphere-warming/___

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2015-05-14 02:14:44 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 1 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/13/global-surface-temperatures-continue-to-rise/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/13/global-surface-temperatures-continue-to-rise/___

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2015-05-13 14:28:11 (1 comments, 0 reshares, 4 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/13/should-i-wash-my-dishes-before-putting-them-in-the-dishwasher/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/13/should-i-wash-my-dishes-before-putting-them-in-the-dishwasher/___

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2015-05-09 21:18:54 (1 comments, 0 reshares, 4 +1s)Open 

Unbelievable: http://gregladen.com/blog/2015/05/texas-nuthouse/ 

Unbelievable: http://gregladen.com/blog/2015/05/texas-nuthouse/ ___

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2015-05-09 17:45:17 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 2 +1s)Open 

I remember joking with my friend Ana about how her name would be attached to the first named storm in the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season. It turns out Ana is an exceptional individual. Both of them.

Ana, my friend, is an actor and is currently engaged in a project I’ll be telling you more about later. But in the meantime, you can visit this page and find out about a new and very interesting Star Wars related crowd-funded production called The Recompense. Give them money.

Meanwhile, back in the Atlantic Ocean...



http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/09/ana-is-coming-up-the-atlantic/

I remember joking with my friend Ana about how her name would be attached to the first named storm in the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane season. It turns out Ana is an exceptional individual. Both of them.

Ana, my friend, is an actor and is currently engaged in a project I’ll be telling you more about later. But in the meantime, you can visit this page and find out about a new and very interesting Star Wars related crowd-funded production called The Recompense. Give them money.

Meanwhile, back in the Atlantic Ocean...



http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/09/ana-is-coming-up-the-atlantic/___

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2015-05-09 17:43:51 (1 comments, 0 reshares, 3 +1s)Open 

Sometimes science sees something change – there is more of something, or less, or more importantly, there is a change in the rate of some phenomenon or in its pattern of variability. But sometimes science looks out there in the world and observes something that was probably there all along (though there may be changes in the past or future) but it just wasn’t noticed before.

There is a new study that describes and documents such a phenomenon. The thing we are talking about is over 100 kilometers across, several meters thick, moves at about 4.5 km/h, exists just below the surface of the ocean, can potentially be detected in satellite data as a very small change in sea level, there are probably a lot of them, and they are continuously forming, moving across certain parts of the sea, and disappearing.

Oh, and the are Neptunic Grim Reapers. They are potentially fatal to any animal thatend... more »

Sometimes science sees something change – there is more of something, or less, or more importantly, there is a change in the rate of some phenomenon or in its pattern of variability. But sometimes science looks out there in the world and observes something that was probably there all along (though there may be changes in the past or future) but it just wasn’t noticed before.

There is a new study that describes and documents such a phenomenon. The thing we are talking about is over 100 kilometers across, several meters thick, moves at about 4.5 km/h, exists just below the surface of the ocean, can potentially be detected in satellite data as a very small change in sea level, there are probably a lot of them, and they are continuously forming, moving across certain parts of the sea, and disappearing.

Oh, and the are Neptunic Grim Reapers. They are potentially fatal to any animal that ends up inside them, and they may explain previously observed mass die-offs around oceanic islands.

Is this some kind of fish? A red tide gone amok? Glowing blobs of nuclear waste spreading from Fukushima? No, but they do remind me of a 1960s era but still extant musical group that frequently toured with Frank Zappa.

The phenomena is a...


http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/09/heretofore-unknown-deadly-eddies-flow-across-the-atlantic-ocean/___

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2015-05-06 18:04:34 (2 comments, 0 reshares, 1 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/06/bnsf-oil-train-derailment-10-cars-burning/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/06/bnsf-oil-train-derailment-10-cars-burning/___

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2015-05-06 15:53:59 (0 comments, 1 reshares, 6 +1s)Open 

The Earth’s climate is warming. The upper oceans are warming, the sea surface temperatures are elevated, the air in the lower Troposphere, where we live, is warming. This warming is caused almost entirely by the increase in human generated greenhouse gasses and the positive (not positive in a good way) feedbacks caused by that. The effects that increase the global heat imbalance and the effects that decrease it (such as greenhouse gas increase and aerosols — dust — from volcanoes, respectively) vary over time in their effect, which causes some variation in the upward march of global surface and ocean temperatures. Meanwhile heat is going back and forth between the surface (atmosphere and sea surface) and the deeper (but still upper) ocean, which causes either of these parts of the Earth system to wiggle up and down in temperature. There are other effects causing other wiggles.

...  
more »

The Earth’s climate is warming. The upper oceans are warming, the sea surface temperatures are elevated, the air in the lower Troposphere, where we live, is warming. This warming is caused almost entirely by the increase in human generated greenhouse gasses and the positive (not positive in a good way) feedbacks caused by that. The effects that increase the global heat imbalance and the effects that decrease it (such as greenhouse gas increase and aerosols — dust — from volcanoes, respectively) vary over time in their effect, which causes some variation in the upward march of global surface and ocean temperatures. Meanwhile heat is going back and forth between the surface (atmosphere and sea surface) and the deeper (but still upper) ocean, which causes either of these parts of the Earth system to wiggle up and down in temperature. There are other effects causing other wiggles.

...  

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/06/the-fauxpause-is-faux/___

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2015-05-05 18:14:17 (2 comments, 1 reshares, 5 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/05/the-truth-about-the-brown-recluse-spider/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/05/the-truth-about-the-brown-recluse-spider/___

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2015-05-05 15:29:26 (0 comments, 1 reshares, 3 +1s)Open 

I’m auditing the EdEx course “Denial101x: Making Sense of Climate Science Denial.” This is Week 2: Global Warming ins Happening. The course is covering indicators of warming, what is happening in the Cryosphere, and related matters.

Live blogged Week Two here: 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/05/global-warming-is-happening-denial101-x/

I’m auditing the EdEx course “Denial101x: Making Sense of Climate Science Denial.” This is Week 2: Global Warming ins Happening. The course is covering indicators of warming, what is happening in the Cryosphere, and related matters.

Live blogged Week Two here: 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/05/05/global-warming-is-happening-denial101-x/___

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2015-05-04 16:50:18 (1 comments, 1 reshares, 2 +1s)Open 

___

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2015-04-30 17:41:29 (2 comments, 0 reshares, 5 +1s)Open 

Review of the new, forthcoming 2nd edition, and an interview with author Michael Mann: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/30/dire-predictions-understanding-climate-change-must-read-book/

Review of the new, forthcoming 2nd edition, and an interview with author Michael Mann: http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/30/dire-predictions-understanding-climate-change-must-read-book/___

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2015-04-29 19:05:23 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 3 +1s)Open 

*Comparing models and empirical estimates Part II: interview with Brown*


I recently posted an overview of a new climate study, Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise, by Patrick T. Brown, Wenhong Li, Eugene C. Cordero & Steven A. Mauget. That study is potentially important because of what it says about how to interpret the available data on global warming caused by human generated greenhouse gas pollution. Also, the since publication the study has been rather abused by climate contrarians who chose to interpret it very inaccurately. This is addressed in this item by Media Matters.

My post on the paper describes the basic findings, but at the time I wrote that, I had a number of questions for the study authors. I sent the questions off noting that there was not a big hurry to get back to me, since... more »

*Comparing models and empirical estimates Part II: interview with Brown*


I recently posted an overview of a new climate study, Comparing the model-simulated global warming signal to observations using empirical estimates of unforced noise, by Patrick T. Brown, Wenhong Li, Eugene C. Cordero & Steven A. Mauget. That study is potentially important because of what it says about how to interpret the available data on global warming caused by human generated greenhouse gas pollution. Also, the since publication the study has been rather abused by climate contrarians who chose to interpret it very inaccurately. This is addressed in this item by Media Matters.

My post on the paper describes the basic findings, but at the time I wrote that, I had a number of questions for the study authors. I sent the questions off noting that there was not a big hurry to get back to me, since the climate wasn’t going anywhere any time soon. Lead Author, Patrick Brown, in the mean time, underwent something of a trial by fire when the denialosphere went nuts in the effort to misinterpret the study’s results. I guess I can’t blame them. There is no actual science to grab on to in the effort to deny the reality or importance of anthropogenic climate change, so why not just make stuff up?

Anyway, Patrick Brown addressed all the questions I sent him, and I thought the best way to present this information is as a straight forward interview. As follows.

Amidst the reactions I’ve seen on social media, blogs, etc. to your paper, I see the idea that your study suggests a downward shift in the (severity of, literally, GMT) resulting from greenhouse gas pollution than what was previously thought. However, I don’t think your paper actually says that. Can you comment?

Reply:...


http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/29/comparing-models-and-empirical-estimates-part-ii/___

2015-04-29 16:09:28 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 1 +1s)Open 

http://gregladen.com/blog/2015/04/kids-sent-back-in-time-machine-to-the-middle-ages/

http://gregladen.com/blog/2015/04/kids-sent-back-in-time-machine-to-the-middle-ages/___

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2015-04-29 02:58:55 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 4 +1s)Open 

As we stood in Abdul's cinder block walled concrete slab office at the very end of the main avenue in town, negotiating terms for Scotch and tobacco, Hamisi stormed into the room furious.  "I just fired Muzenda, that worthless mechanic," he was saying. "For a Muslim he sure does drink a lot, and more so when he is on the job. I'm giving him his severance pay now," he continued, pawing at the contents of the cash drawer, which he had just opened.  Hamisi stormed out with the cash in hand, with Naipaul staring close behind.   

And just at that moment, Abdul's countenance visibly changed.  He turned relatively white for a brown man, and I swear on the heavens that I saw a glow in his eyes.  I don't mean a metaphorical glow.  I saw light come from his very eyes, like dim flashlights, at the same time a profuse sweat formed on his brow and he began to sway alittle... more »

As we stood in Abdul's cinder block walled concrete slab office at the very end of the main avenue in town, negotiating terms for Scotch and tobacco, Hamisi stormed into the room furious.  "I just fired Muzenda, that worthless mechanic," he was saying. "For a Muslim he sure does drink a lot, and more so when he is on the job. I'm giving him his severance pay now," he continued, pawing at the contents of the cash drawer, which he had just opened.  Hamisi stormed out with the cash in hand, with Naipaul staring close behind.   

And just at that moment, Abdul's countenance visibly changed.  He turned relatively white for a brown man, and I swear on the heavens that I saw a glow in his eyes.  I don't mean a metaphorical glow.  I saw light come from his very eyes, like dim flashlights, at the same time a profuse sweat formed on his brow and he began to sway a little. 

The sweat dripped into his eyes and seemed to extinguish the preternatural fire they emitted and just as suddenly he came to, or almost came to, and uttered in the darkest monotone, "Hamisi will meet you on the mountains..."  After a moment of silence, he returned to his normally pleasant jovial self, and glancing thoughtfully at each of us in turn, bid us our farewell and a safe journey.  
His last words were this: "Take the case of liquor.  Pay me later if you make it back."  

http://gregladen.com/blog/sungudogo/___

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2015-04-29 02:27:02 (0 comments, 1 reshares, 3 +1s)Open 

A group of scientists attending a major conference get together in a bar. They talk, but they agree on nothing because they are critical academics. The server comes along to take the beer order and says, “I noticed you all are constantly arguing. What are you arguing about?”

“Sensitivity,” one of them says. “It is the number of degrees C the Earth’s surface will warm with a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. Is it 2, 3, 4? … We cant settle on a number”

The server considers their plight for a moment. Suddenly, she rips several sheets out of her order book and hands one to each of the scientists. She notices they all already have pens and mechanical pencils in their shirt pockets.

“Each of you write down a number for sensitivity. Don’t share. I’ll look at them all and if they are all the same number I’ll bring you your beer for free for the rest of theevening.”

Th... more »

A group of scientists attending a major conference get together in a bar. They talk, but they agree on nothing because they are critical academics. The server comes along to take the beer order and says, “I noticed you all are constantly arguing. What are you arguing about?”

“Sensitivity,” one of them says. “It is the number of degrees C the Earth’s surface will warm with a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. Is it 2, 3, 4? … We cant settle on a number”

The server considers their plight for a moment. Suddenly, she rips several sheets out of her order book and hands one to each of the scientists. She notices they all already have pens and mechanical pencils in their shirt pockets.

“Each of you write down a number for sensitivity. Don’t share. I’ll look at them all and if they are all the same number I’ll bring you your beer for free for the rest of the evening.”

The scientists comply. She looks at their numbers. They are all the same. Despite the quibbling they all had the same sense for what the number for climate “sensitivity” likely is. They get free beer for the evening.

Scientific consensus is what most scientists will nitpick about but ultimately agree on if free beer is at stake.


http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/28/what-is-scientific-consensus/___

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2015-04-29 02:15:08 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 4 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/28/what-is-scientific-consensus/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/28/what-is-scientific-consensus/___

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2015-04-28 14:20:28 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 2 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/28/science-of-the-avengers/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/28/science-of-the-avengers/___

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2015-04-26 15:39:04 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 5 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/26/will-2015-be-warmer-than-2014/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/26/will-2015-be-warmer-than-2014/___

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2015-04-25 19:37:48 (1 comments, 0 reshares, 6 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/25/pioneer-space-probe-humans-with-cell-phones-in-faces/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/25/pioneer-space-probe-humans-with-cell-phones-in-faces/___

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2015-04-24 03:05:08 (0 comments, 7 reshares, 5 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/23/the-day-apollo-13-crashed-into-the-earth-or-something/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/23/the-day-apollo-13-crashed-into-the-earth-or-something/___

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2015-04-23 02:17:42 (0 comments, 0 reshares, 5 +1s)Open 

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/22/calbuco-volcano-erupting/

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/04/22/calbuco-volcano-erupting/___

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